Actual return in box 3, or not?

Following the Supreme Court's ruling on box 3 at the end of 2021, also known as the 'Christmas ruling', the government tried to revise the taxation in box 3 by introducing the flat-rate savings variant. This flat-rate savings variant approximates actual returns, but is still based on flat rates. The aim is to tax actual returns from 2025, but this seems too ambitious due to ICT problems at the Tax Administration and has been postponed to 2026.

The state secretary recently expressed doubts about the feasibility and desirability of taxing actual returns from 2026. This is due to the increasing complexity for both taxpayers and the Tax Administration. A new flat-rate system is therefore being considered, which would better reflect actual returns but still deviate from reality. It is therefore questionable whether such a new variant will remove the criticism of box 3. To ask the question is probably to answer it.

The colouring of the political landscape last week is also likely to have some influence on decision-making in The Hague.

The secretary of state has promised that all non-objectors will be able to claim the court's final ruling, even if they have not applied for an ex officio reduction. Further action is therefore unnecessary at this time.